In 2019, the RMB exchange rate is like a rainbow. January 25 Last Friday, the RMB exchange rate rose sharply. On the same day, the onshore RMB rose 6.75, or more than 400 points, with the offshore RMB reaching a maximum of 6.75. Last week, both onshore and offshore RMB rose more than 800 points. Since 2019, the onshore RMB has increased all the way from around 6.86, and the cumulative increase of offshore RMB has also exceeded 1200 points.
On January 28, the RMB exchange rate surged across the board at the opening price! Data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center showed that the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose 469 basis points to 6.7472, a new high since July 19, 2018 and a new high in nearly two months.
The onshore RMB rose more than 400 points against the US dollar in a straight line, breaking the 6.73 mark to 6.7225, a new high since mid - July 2018. The onshore RMB closed at 6.7389 against the US dollar at 16: 30, up 251 basis points from the previous trading day. In the offshore market, the exchange rate of RMB against USD also hovered around 6.7563, which was close to the integer mark of 6.73.
According to intraday data on that day, the onshore RMB rose nearly 2% against the US dollar in the year!
On January 29, the central parity of RMB against USD was 6.7356 yuan, up 116 basis points from 6.7472 yuan on the previous trading day ( January 28 ).
Wang Youxin, a researcher at the Institute of International Finance of the Bank of China, said that the recent rise in the RMB exchange rate was mainly due to the decline in the US dollar and was a passive rise. In 2019, RMB will enter a cyclical upward channel.
At the invitation of U.S. Treasury Secretary Manuel Mü nchen and trade negotiator Leticize, Deputy Prime Minister Liu He visited the United States from January 30 to 31 to discuss economic and trade issues between the two countries. At that time, it is still not clear how the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate.
The last surge was from January 10 to 11. From January 7 to 9, China and the United States held a ministerial-level consultation on economic and trade issues in Beijing. During the talks, the US dollar index fell to its lowest level since October 2018, while the RMB continued to rise, appreciating more than 1200 points in the past week. On January 10, the onshore RMB closed at 6.7825, up 505 points from 6.8330 the previous trading day. On January 11, the exchange rate between RMB and USD was 6.7909 yuan, up 251 basis points. On - shore RMB and off-shore RMB both broke through the 6.75 mark, setting a new high since July last year.
At present, some banks and hedge funds believe that if the Federal Reserve explicitly releases the signal to end the scale reduction in advance, the RMB / US dollar exchange rate will soon break through the 6.7 integer mark!
As the Spring Festival approaches, foreign traders who have returned home to prepare for the Spring Festival should also keep an eye on exchange rate fluctuations. It's about profits, not carelessness!
